25 Şubat 2013 Pazartesi

The Generation Gasp, February 23, 2013

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A platter of horse meat served at Kishlak, an ...
A platter of horse meat served at Kishlak, an Uzbek restaurant in Kazakhstan. The horse meat was served cold. There are three types on the platter: tripe on the left, roasted in the middle, and sausage on the right. The roasted meat tasted no different than roast beef. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)
A Horse of A different Color

Saturday, February 23, 2013
By CLAIRE AND JIM CASTAGNERA tneditor@tnonline.comClaire:Recently, the food company Nestle and grocery stores in the U.K. were forced to recall much of their meat and meat-containing meals. The reason? The meat was labeled "beef," but actually contained large percentages of horsemeat. Some as much as 100 percent. Sure, some people eat horsemeat on purpose, but other people are less enthused about the surprise in their mystery meat.My first reaction was visceral - the poor horses! After all, I've ridden horses since I was eight; I tend to think of them as pets, even friends, but not food. But that doesn't change the fact that people around the world enjoy horsemeat, just as some cultures consider dog meat a part of their traditional cuisine. There's also the fact that the horse meat wasn't detected until Irish food safety authorities randomly tested a range of supermarket beef products and found pork and horse DNA present in most products. In other words, no one complained about funky-tasting meat, and so one must wonder if anyone would've figured it out otherwise. Which brings me to: is it really such a big deal?Well, yes, of course it is. We all want to know that the ingredients listed in our food are the ingredients we're actually consuming. But I think that's what this scandal has brought to light: all too often we don't know what we're eating. In this day and age, so many of the ingredients listed on the side of the container range from indecipherable to meaningless… something we like to blissfully ignore until an incident like this makes us think a little too hard.Because is it really that much more distasteful to eat a horse than, say, a cow? I would hazard to guess the answer is "no," if you take the time to think about it. But most of us - myself included - would rather continue eating in ignorance than delve into that can of worms.Jim:The Chinese have a saying: "We eat everything that flies, except airplanes; we eat everything in the water, except boats; and, we eat everything that moves on the land, except cars." On my several trips to China, I've eaten sea slugs (think snot), duck tongues (quack, quack), and a whole, pickled quail (everything but the beak).In Mexico, I've had bulls' cojones. I've tried tripe soup in a Polish restaurant in Trenton and snails in any number of French and Italian restaurants. Even these culinary adventures pale, however, compared to cutting edge gourmets who consume poisonous puffer fish and live octopi. Eating monkey brains is another exotic practice, though my limited research reveals that the eating of live-monkey brains is an urban legend.Alligator, ostrich and kangaroo steaks are mundane by comparison. All are raised and eaten around the world. Likewise carp and eels.At the end of the day, the Chinese aren't unique in their openness to unusual eats. The rub, as Claire rightly observes, is keeping the contents confidential. Almost as bad in my book is providing a chemistry set's inventory of chemicals on the back of the wrapper. How am I helped by being told the product I'm about to eat contains methylcyclopropene, aspartame, astaxanthin, benzoic acid, butylated hydroxyanisole, or canthaxathin? (You can look all these up athttp://phys.org/news183110037.html)At least - to the best of my knowledge - we don't eat one another. I recall a 1973 sci-fi film called "Soylent Green," in which Charlton Heston plays a cop in an overcrowded future world, who discovers that the latest high-protein bars on offer to the masses are recycled corpses.Enter any American supermarket to see how far from that horror we are. Imagine how some Stone Age cannibal would react the cornucopia we take for granted. I can live with a little deception as a fair trade off.
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Once more into the breach: from the sublime to the mundane

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Ten baby products that are harmful when misused:

http://www.newborncare.com/blog/10-baby-products-that-can-cause-injuries-because-of-misuse/


  • My HONEST opinion of Honest Baby Products!
  • Study Finds Flame Retardants in 80% of Baby Products
  • The Toxic Truth behind Mass-Produced Baby Bedding
  • Ensure your baby's safety at home
  • A Letter to My Pregnant Child-less Self
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Thought for the day... from a dear colleague

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English: Thomas Hobbes Македон�ки: Тома� Хоб�
English: Thomas Hobbes Македон�ки: Тома� Хоб� (Photo credit: Wikipedia)
"Change is caused by lazy, greedy, frightened people looking for easier, more profitable, and safer ways to do things."

This is from an article in the Chronicle about historian Ian Morris.
http://chronicle.com/article/In-Ian-Morriss-Big-History/137415/?cid=cr&utm_source=cr&utm_medium=en

Like Hobbes's "nasty, brutish, and short," those Limeys sure have a way with words.
Tim


  • A Comparative Peace Oriented Social Contracts
  • "An Animal": Human Behavior, Labels, and Governance
  • The Leviathan Shows Its Teeth
  • On happiness [Stoat]
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Deferred Action for Certain Young Immigrants: Don't Get Scammed

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On June 15, 2012, DHS announced that certain young people who entered the US before age 16 will no longer be removed from the United States. Qualifying individuals will be granted "deferred action" and be eligible for a work permit.
In order to be eligible for deferred action an individual must prove that he or she: 
  1. Was under 31 years old on June 15, 2012
  2. Came to the United States at the age of 16
  3. Has continuously resided in the United States for at least 5 years before June 15, 2012, and was physically present in the United States on June 15, 2012.
  4. Is currently attending school, has graduated from high school, has obtained a G.E.D. certificate or is an honorably discharged veteran of the US Armed Forces or Coast Guard.
  5. Has not been convicted of a felony offense,significant misdemeanor offense, multiple misdemeanor offenses, or otherwise possessed a threat to the community or national security.
The government will inform the public how to apply within 60 days or by August 13, 2012. Until then anyone CANNOT APPLY for deferred action. You should not turn yourself in to start the process. 

However, you can begin gathering the documents that you will need.
  1. Documents such as birth certificate or passport, showing age on June 15, 2012;
  2. Financial records, medical records, school records, employment records, and military records that demonstrate an individual came to the US before the age of 16, and resides in the US for at least five years preceding June 15, 2012 and was physically present in the US as of June 15, 2012;
  3. School records, including diplomas, G.E.D. certificates, report cards, school transcripts and other evidence of enrollment, or documentation as an honorably discharged veteran of the US Armed Forces or Coast Guard.
Request for deferred action will be  reviewed on a case to case basis, and not every young immigrant are qualify.
Source: AILA 
If you have any questions or need assistance with your immigration matter,
please do not hesitate to contact our office.

Sharlene Mae Bagon, Esq.
BAGON LAW FIRM
6700 Fallbrook Avenue
Suite 125H
West Hills, CA 91307
Toll Free: (888) 992-2466
Main Tel.: (818) 539-0120
Fax: (888) 589-0804
www.bagonlawfirm.com

Supreme Court Ruling on SB 1070, Arizona's Immigration Law

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On Monday, June 25, 2012, the US Supreme Court upheld the main provision of Arizona's crackdown on illegal immigrants but threw out three other parts. 
These three provisions required immigrants to carry immigration papers at all times, banned illegal immigrants from soliciting work in public places, and requires state law enforcement officials to determine the immigration status of anyone they stop or arrest if they have reason to suspect that the individual might be in the country illegally. 
Though the court gave the go-ahead to a key provision of Arizona's crackdown on illegal immigrants, it also warned that people could not be held for extended periods for not having proper immigration papers.
In their ruling, the justices said the federal government had the ultimate authority to decide who would be held on immigration charges and possibly deported. Arizona police officers must also check with federal immigration agents before deciding to hold any suspects, the court ruled. Federal immigration officials in Arizona were instructed by the Department of Homeland Security  not to respond to traffic stops or similar law enforcement encounters unless the person in custody was a convicted criminal, had been removed from the U.S. previously and reentered illegally or was a recent border crosser. They will, however, respond to telephone requests from local law enforcement to verify a detainee's immigration status.
Arizona became the first of half a dozen U.S. states to adopt laws to drive illegal immigrants out. About 360,000 of the country's illegal immigrants, or 3 percent, reside in Arizona. Most of the state's nearly 2 million Hispanics are in the country legally.  Arizona borders Mexico, where the foreign ministry issued a statement assailing the high political costs it said were attached to such laws and voicing concern for the civil rights of Mexicans living in or visiting U.S. states with such laws.
Last year, the court upheld a different Arizona law that penalizes businesses for hiring illegal immigrants.
Source: NY Times, LA Times, Reuters
If you have any questions or need assistance with your immigration matter,
please do not hesitate to contact our office.

Sharlene Mae Bagon, Esq.
BAGON LAW FIRM
6700 Fallbrook Avenue
Suite 125H
West Hills, CA 91307
Toll Free: (888) 992-2466
Main Tel.: (818) 539-0120
Fax: (888) 589-0804
www.bagonlawfirm.com

24 Şubat 2013 Pazar

A Third Palestinian Intifada?

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The Coat of arms of the Palestinian National A...
The Coat of arms of the Palestinian National Authority (Photo credit: Wikipedia)
The fear of a Third Palestinian Intifada and what we can learn from the Second Intifada

During the last days major demonstrations took place across the West Bank in solidarity with Palestinian hunger-strikers and prisoners, with many Palestinian civilians wounded in the clashes with IDF forces. There are presently four Palestinian prisoners on long-term hunger strike and their plight have struck an emotional chord with Palestinians. Palestinian politician and activist Mustafa Barghouti warned that a Third Intifada would break out “if anything happens to the prisoners” (Bikya News, February 21, 2013).

According to Haaretz, the events in the West Bank “have brought Israel and the Palestinians closer to the boiling point than they have been in many years.” “For the first time since 2007, it seems that the Palestinian Authority (PA) has an interest in making waves, even if the leadership in Ramallah does not want to see long-term bloody clashes.” The reasons cited by the Israeli daily for PA’s position: diverting attention away from its failure to reach a reconciliation agreement with Hamas; worsening economic situation and the hope Israel could persuade the Arab world to renew donations to the PA; the upcoming visit by U.S. President Barack Obama to the region and the hope to persuade the administration to re-engage in Israeli-Palestinian peace talks (Amos Harel, Haaretz, Feb.24, 2013).

On this background see the article by Lt. Col. (ret.) Jonathan D. Halevi “The Palestinian Authority’s Responsibility for the Outbreak of the Second Intifada: Its Own Damning Testimony,” published by  the Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs at:

http://jcpa.org/article/the-palestinian-authoritys-responsibility-for-the-outbreak-of-the-second-intifada-its-own-damning-testimony/

I agree with Halevi’s conclusion that contrary to the claim made on February 11, 2013, on Israel’s Channel 10 television program “The Source” that there was not even an “iota of evidence” that the Palestinian Authority leadership, and Yasser Arafat in particular, planned and initiated the Second Intifada, which resulted in the deaths of more than 1,000 Israelis by 2005, the final decision to initiate the Second Intifada was indeed made by Yasser Arafat immediately upon the conclusion of the second Camp David summit, which ended on July 25, 2000.

See also my old article on the same subject “The Role of Terrorism in the Breakdown of the Israeli - Palestinian Peace Process, “published by ICT in May 2003, at the height of the Second Intifada at:
http://www.ict.org.il/Articles/tabid/66/Articlsid/104/currentpage/25/Default.aspx

Halevi cites Marwan Barghouti [one of the intifada’s most prominent Fatah leaders imprisoned in Israel for his direct responsibility in the killing of five Israelis], who presented a revealing statement (Akhbar Al-Khalil, March 8, 2000) on the strategy of the Fatah movement at the beginning of 2000:

“Whoever believes that one can reach a decision on the issues of a permanent agreement [with Israel] – for example, on refugees, Jerusalem, settlements, and borders – via negotiation is living under an illusion. On these matters we have to wage a battle on the ground in parallel to the negotiating framework….I mean a conflict.”

The question today is if the President of the PA, Mahmoud Abbas (Abu Mazen), will choose in the end the path of violence to which he was opposed until now, or he will lose control of the situation, after he encouraged the first stages of popular violence.

In an interview with the official website of the Hamas movement (palestine-info.info) in October 2010, cited in Halevi’s article, Mahmoud Al-Zahar, one of Hamas’ senior leaders, was asked if it can be expected that Abu Mazen will reach a stage in his conduct similar to the one of Yasser Arafat at his time, who “ instructed Hamas to carry out terror attacks while he was besieged in Ramallah.”

Mahmoud Al-Zahar answered that “Abu Mazen has neither the courage nor the vision, and he is incapable of betting his life on such an issue.”

It remains to be seen if Al-Zahar’s evaluation was right, in which case the possible transformation of the present violent demonstrations into a bloody Third Intifada could be the result of PA’s leadership losing control of the situation or if Hamas succeeds to thrust it in this trap by a wave of deadly bombings.


Ely Karmon, Ph.D.
Senior Research Scholar
International Institute for Counter-Terrorism (ICT) and
The Institute for Policy and Strategy (IPS) at
The Interdisciplinary Center (IDC)
Herzlyia, Israel
Tel.:   972-9-9527277
Cell.: 972-52-2653306
Fax.: 972-9-9513073, 972-9-7716653
E-mail: ekarmon@idc.ac.il
Web: http://www.ict.org.il/



  • 'Third intifada' is already here, PA officials say
  • Rajoub: We Won't Initiate 3rd Intifada
  • 'Palestinian Authority' increasing violence ahead of Obama visit
  • 18 attempts in four months to kidnap Israeli soldiers
  • Palestinian inmates on hunger strike
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A lockdown at MIT yesterday

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English: A Ford Cambridge Police Department, p...
English: A Ford Cambridge Police Department, patrol car from the side-view. (older design) (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

The MIT campus was placed on lockdown Saturday morning following a report from the Cambridge Police that there was a man with...
To continue reading this breaking news, use the following link:
http://facultyrow.com/profiles/blogs/breaking-news-mit-campus-on-lockdown
You may check the status of this story throughout the day, on FacultyRow.com's homepage.
-The FacultyRow Team
Visit FacultyRow at: http://facultyrow.com/?xg_source=msg_mes_network 
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White House announces new open-access policy to federally financed research results

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http://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/default/files/microsites/ostp/ostp_public_access_memo_2013.pdf


  • Since The Open Access Bill Probably Won't Get Passed (pascophronesis.wordpress.com)
  • Big day for open access (walt.lishost.org)
  • US White House announces open access policy (blogs.nature.com)
  • Obama White House expands access to federally funded research (guardian.co.uk)
  • No celebrations here: why the White House public access policy sucks (michaeleisen.org)
  • Oh hell yes: White House announces new US open access policy for scientific papers (io9.com)
  • Roundup: Obama Administration Releases Policy Memo To Increase Public Access to Results of Federally Funded Research (infodocket.com)
  • Fourth-time lucky for US open access bill? (blogs.nature.com)
  • White House Announces Plan To Open Up Access To Research Supported by Federal Funds (thinkprogress.org)
  • Support FASTR for open access to research. by Electronic Frontier Foundation (socialactions.net)
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Deferred Action for Certain Young Immigrants: Don't Get Scammed

To contact us Click HERE
On June 15, 2012, DHS announced that certain young people who entered the US before age 16 will no longer be removed from the United States. Qualifying individuals will be granted "deferred action" and be eligible for a work permit.
In order to be eligible for deferred action an individual must prove that he or she: 
  1. Was under 31 years old on June 15, 2012
  2. Came to the United States at the age of 16
  3. Has continuously resided in the United States for at least 5 years before June 15, 2012, and was physically present in the United States on June 15, 2012.
  4. Is currently attending school, has graduated from high school, has obtained a G.E.D. certificate or is an honorably discharged veteran of the US Armed Forces or Coast Guard.
  5. Has not been convicted of a felony offense,significant misdemeanor offense, multiple misdemeanor offenses, or otherwise possessed a threat to the community or national security.
The government will inform the public how to apply within 60 days or by August 13, 2012. Until then anyone CANNOT APPLY for deferred action. You should not turn yourself in to start the process. 

However, you can begin gathering the documents that you will need.
  1. Documents such as birth certificate or passport, showing age on June 15, 2012;
  2. Financial records, medical records, school records, employment records, and military records that demonstrate an individual came to the US before the age of 16, and resides in the US for at least five years preceding June 15, 2012 and was physically present in the US as of June 15, 2012;
  3. School records, including diplomas, G.E.D. certificates, report cards, school transcripts and other evidence of enrollment, or documentation as an honorably discharged veteran of the US Armed Forces or Coast Guard.
Request for deferred action will be  reviewed on a case to case basis, and not every young immigrant are qualify.
Source: AILA 
If you have any questions or need assistance with your immigration matter,
please do not hesitate to contact our office.

Sharlene Mae Bagon, Esq.
BAGON LAW FIRM
6700 Fallbrook Avenue
Suite 125H
West Hills, CA 91307
Toll Free: (888) 992-2466
Main Tel.: (818) 539-0120
Fax: (888) 589-0804
www.bagonlawfirm.com

Supreme Court Ruling on SB 1070, Arizona's Immigration Law

To contact us Click HERE
On Monday, June 25, 2012, the US Supreme Court upheld the main provision of Arizona's crackdown on illegal immigrants but threw out three other parts. 
These three provisions required immigrants to carry immigration papers at all times, banned illegal immigrants from soliciting work in public places, and requires state law enforcement officials to determine the immigration status of anyone they stop or arrest if they have reason to suspect that the individual might be in the country illegally. 
Though the court gave the go-ahead to a key provision of Arizona's crackdown on illegal immigrants, it also warned that people could not be held for extended periods for not having proper immigration papers.
In their ruling, the justices said the federal government had the ultimate authority to decide who would be held on immigration charges and possibly deported. Arizona police officers must also check with federal immigration agents before deciding to hold any suspects, the court ruled. Federal immigration officials in Arizona were instructed by the Department of Homeland Security  not to respond to traffic stops or similar law enforcement encounters unless the person in custody was a convicted criminal, had been removed from the U.S. previously and reentered illegally or was a recent border crosser. They will, however, respond to telephone requests from local law enforcement to verify a detainee's immigration status.
Arizona became the first of half a dozen U.S. states to adopt laws to drive illegal immigrants out. About 360,000 of the country's illegal immigrants, or 3 percent, reside in Arizona. Most of the state's nearly 2 million Hispanics are in the country legally.  Arizona borders Mexico, where the foreign ministry issued a statement assailing the high political costs it said were attached to such laws and voicing concern for the civil rights of Mexicans living in or visiting U.S. states with such laws.
Last year, the court upheld a different Arizona law that penalizes businesses for hiring illegal immigrants.
Source: NY Times, LA Times, Reuters
If you have any questions or need assistance with your immigration matter,
please do not hesitate to contact our office.

Sharlene Mae Bagon, Esq.
BAGON LAW FIRM
6700 Fallbrook Avenue
Suite 125H
West Hills, CA 91307
Toll Free: (888) 992-2466
Main Tel.: (818) 539-0120
Fax: (888) 589-0804
www.bagonlawfirm.com

23 Şubat 2013 Cumartesi

Supreme Court Ruling on SB 1070, Arizona's Immigration Law

To contact us Click HERE
On Monday, June 25, 2012, the US Supreme Court upheld the main provision of Arizona's crackdown on illegal immigrants but threw out three other parts. 
These three provisions required immigrants to carry immigration papers at all times, banned illegal immigrants from soliciting work in public places, and requires state law enforcement officials to determine the immigration status of anyone they stop or arrest if they have reason to suspect that the individual might be in the country illegally. 
Though the court gave the go-ahead to a key provision of Arizona's crackdown on illegal immigrants, it also warned that people could not be held for extended periods for not having proper immigration papers.
In their ruling, the justices said the federal government had the ultimate authority to decide who would be held on immigration charges and possibly deported. Arizona police officers must also check with federal immigration agents before deciding to hold any suspects, the court ruled. Federal immigration officials in Arizona were instructed by the Department of Homeland Security  not to respond to traffic stops or similar law enforcement encounters unless the person in custody was a convicted criminal, had been removed from the U.S. previously and reentered illegally or was a recent border crosser. They will, however, respond to telephone requests from local law enforcement to verify a detainee's immigration status.
Arizona became the first of half a dozen U.S. states to adopt laws to drive illegal immigrants out. About 360,000 of the country's illegal immigrants, or 3 percent, reside in Arizona. Most of the state's nearly 2 million Hispanics are in the country legally.  Arizona borders Mexico, where the foreign ministry issued a statement assailing the high political costs it said were attached to such laws and voicing concern for the civil rights of Mexicans living in or visiting U.S. states with such laws.
Last year, the court upheld a different Arizona law that penalizes businesses for hiring illegal immigrants.
Source: NY Times, LA Times, Reuters
If you have any questions or need assistance with your immigration matter,
please do not hesitate to contact our office.

Sharlene Mae Bagon, Esq.
BAGON LAW FIRM
6700 Fallbrook Avenue
Suite 125H
West Hills, CA 91307
Toll Free: (888) 992-2466
Main Tel.: (818) 539-0120
Fax: (888) 589-0804
www.bagonlawfirm.com

Getting a US driving license

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The first thing that I should point out is that in the USthere is no single national driving license, like in the UK.  In the US, driving licenses are issued byindividual states.  This means that thereare different costs, rules, tests, according to where you live.  (The driving laws also vary too from state tostate.)
I live in Florida.  Ifyou go for a license in California or Illinois, there will be many similaritieswith my experience, but also some differences.
Driving generally inthe US
Getting by without a car is generally much more difficult inthe US, compared to the UK, as there is generally far less public transport(trains, buses, etc.), unless you are in a certain big cities.
Automatic cars are the norm in the US, vehicles with manualgear-changing are less uncommon.
Petrol/gas is cheap compared to Europe, around half theprice, although people still complain about the price.
There is much more a driving culture.  People travel relatively long distances,compared to Britain.  Most people areassumed to be drivers and have a license.
Can I drive in the USon a British license?
Yes, you can for a time. I left it almost a year before I went for my Florida license.  If you go much longer than that, you run therisk of getting into trouble.  There are some big disadvantages with driving on a foreignlicense.  For one thing, the insurance ismuch higher.  Also, a US driving license iscommonly used as a form of ID in all sorts of situations.
How much does alicense cost?
Mine cost me $48, plus an additional $20 because I failed itthe first time(!)  This is cheaper thanin the UK, where the total cost was not far off £100 the last time that Ilooked.
Taking the test(s)
The Florida test was split into two parts: a written testand a road test.
I did the written test on a computer at the test center.  There were two lots of twenty multiple choicequestions, mainly understanding road signs and general road safety.  I passed easily, having downloaded and studiedthe handbook beforehand and taken numerous free mock tests that I foundonline.  
Most elements of driving and things like road signs aresimilar to the UK, but the terminology can sometimes be different, so it isworth doing some study of the handbook, even if you feel confident aboutdriving.  “Give Way” is ”Yield”, forinstance, and the “hand brake” is more often known as the “parking brake”, or“emergency brake”.  There are many minordifferences to be aware of, some of which you can easily guess, but they might throw you in a test situation.
Despite its name, the Florida road test does not take placeon the public highway, rather it is conducted on a mocked up road system in thegrounds of the driving test center, which you drive around, following the examiner's instructions.  There are no other road users to interact with.
 Thetest is generally much easier than the British equivalent and has a higher passrate.  Despite this, I still managed tofail it – having lived without a car in a British city for many years, mydriving skills were very rusty.  I retookit a few weeks later and passed it, although there was a surcharge of 20dollars, as I mentioned earlier.
Things assessed on the road test included parking,reversing, stop quickly (emergency stop), turn about (three point turn), stopsigns.
When do I get mylicense?
Thanks to modern technology, the computer was able to make alicense card for me while I waited.  Ittook about ten minutes.  I don’t know ifthis instant service is available everywhere.

Francesco Sisci of Il Sole on the Pope's Abdication

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Pope Benedictus XVI
Pope Benedictus XVI (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

The Pope's unexpected decision to resign presents the Catholic Church with a chance to defy its conservatism, and a particular challenge for Western culture. Finding a pope from Asia, a dynamic frontier for the church, is one option being considered by one of the most momentous conclaves in history, even as just one-twentieth of the world's Catholics live there. - Francesco Sisci (Feb 15, '13)

ROME - With a gesture that breaks with thousands of years of tradition, the Pope, usually considered a bulwark of conservatism in the world, has projected the Catholic Church into the third millennium and presented Western culture with a challenge. 
The West has been put under pressure by the rise of Asian and African cultures. Now an Asian Pope, long out of the realms of possibility, is one option being considered by the cardinals frantically talking to each other ahead of one of the most momentous conclaves in history.

If there is a pope from Asia, a continent home to the majority of the world's population but only 4-5% of the world's one billion Catholics, he would have a deep, global political role.

If the Church does decide to innovate in this way, so should all institutions in the West challenged by the rise of a new brave world in Asia.

Pope Benedict XVI, Joseph Ratzinger, on Monday announced his resignation. Vatican experts hurried to explain that there had been similar examples. In the 13th century, Pope Celestine V abdicated, after being chosen in the last non-conclave papal election in history. But he left while in full health after just five months and eight days for what Dante called “il gran rifiuto,” the grand refusal, an act of cowardice according to many contemporaries. Thus, the Florentine poet placed him in Hell in his Divine Comedy.

More recently, when Rome was occupied by the Nazis and Pius XII was under threat of being deported to a concentration camp, he considered abdicating so that the Nazis could not say they had imprisoned the head of the Catholic Church.

This abdication is totally different. Ratzinger has been Pope for almost eight years, and he is now in poor health at a very delicate moment for the church.

Catholics are under attack worldwide for a number of reasons: covering up child molestation, not allowing gay marriages, and refusing priesthood for nuns. They are considered too conservative in the rich West, where they stand for customs of the past; but too innovative in developing countries, where they side with the less fortunate.

The Cardinals of the Curia, the top Vatican officials, are fighting one another. There is no money, as the Americans, who for decades provided most of the funds, are almost bankrupt from paying to silence the accusations of molestation.

At this moment, the Church needs a strong leader, but Benedict XVI cannot provide leadership because of his poor health. He could have chosen to carry on with his papacy, since modern medicine can prolong his life for very long time, but this would leave the Catholic church without an effective guide. This would also have let the present wounds in the Church fester. By resigning, he can open the way for a new, younger, stronger Pope.

In doing the latter he has provided an example of great courage for the conclave that will choose his successor. The Church is at a juncture where it needs very bold moves, says the Pope with his abdication, and this is a signal for the next conclave to make its choice.

Yet the Church is also traditional, and this very innovative pope stood for tradition on many crucial issues about faith. The pope abdicated on the eve of the Lent, the traditional period of fasting, repentance and meditation on one’s sins that has its roots in a Jewish custom dating back possibly to the third millennium BC.

Thus, the Pope's innovative gesture symbolizes that while the Church is not afraid to renew itself, it is also not afraid to maintain its stance on some core issues. The new Pope will have the tough task of striking a new balance between innovation and tradition and clearing his house. Abdication also could remain an extremely rare and extreme option for popes in future centuries.

Regarding Pope Benedict’s successor, one has to start with some basic facts. Ratzinger announced he will abdicate on February 28. Two days earlier, Cardinal Huzar of Ukraine turned 80, and thus he will not join the conclave. The conclave will open 15 to 20 days after that and thus shortly before Easter. All Cardinals who will not have turned 80 at the time of the resignation will attend the conclave and thus Cardinal Kasper of Germany will be the oldest.

This could leave a neat odd number of 117 cardinals taking part in the election of the next pope. Of them, six were chosen for a Concistoro in November. It was the first time since 1929 that there were two Concistoro in one year. 1929 was a landmark year: the Lateran Pacts were signed with the Italian state, and with that the Holy See de facto renounced ruling a state after over 1,000 years. It seems that all the names were personally selected by Pope Benedict without much consultation with the Curia cardinals. They are an American, an African, an Arab, an Indian, a Latin American, and a Filipino of Chinese origin. This was the first time that none of the new cardinals was European. All are signs of innovation.

The new Pope, under the new rules established by Pope Benedict, will need a two-thirds majority - that is, at least 77 votes. This means that the cardinals will have to find a solid consensus. This consensus must coalesce around a project, then on a man who will interpret the project. The first thing is to see if the cardinals will heed the indications of the present pope, if he decides to be clear about those indications, or whether they will decide differently. Anyway, the tradition is of alternating young and old popes. After choosing Benedict, elected in 2005 at 78, a younger cardinal should now step in.

In Rome, names are already swirling around. Scola, Cardinal of Milan and born in September 1941, tops the list. Reportedly he was one of the two cardinals who was informed by the Pope of his decision about the resignation. The other one was Bertone, who, as Secretary of State, thus number two in the Vatican hierarchy, had to know. In theory, Scola would not need to know.

However, among the Italian cardinals, the single largest “national constituency”, 28, many dislike Scola, and after two “foreign” popes (Wojtyla, a pole, and Ratzinger, a German) many in Rome hope again for a foreign pope. Being the pope the bishop of Rome, the wishes of people from the city are not totally indifferent.

The issue is not the person but the “agenda”. A pope from Italy, the traditional cradle of the Holy See, would stress the need of the church to get its house in order and to find again its center, an opportune gesture after the shock of the abdication. However, other concerns may come first, according to opinions in Rome. A Pope from Latin America, would give at long last recognition to this church which is in number second only to Europe and stem inroads of protestants spreading in the continent once almost a catholic reserve. Yet a Pontiff from there could be too close to the US and thus symbolically align Rome too much with the existing superpower.

Another choice could be a Pope from Africa, the new frontier of evangelization. Yet while expanding rapidly, the church there has still many problems. Many priests are de facto married and cast an image that is just too far from the traditional catholic morals. This leaves Asia, the frontier for the church and the dynamo of political, economic, social and cultural growth in this century. Here Catholics are a minority. In the Indian subcontinent they are number over 20 million, have five highly respected cardinals, and a tradition dating back to the first century AD. In India the Hindu faith is also part of the national identity, and thus conversion to Catholicism can be see almost as a betrayal - an Indian pope could be considered a provocation and a challenge to India. Inroads are also difficult in Pakistan or Bangladesh, with Muslim majorities.

China is the new frontier, starved as it is of religion and home of a foreign religion, Buddhism, and thus without any innate prejudice against Christianity. Yet here Catholics are just too few, less than 1% of the population, and there is only one cardinal, John Tong, from Hong Hong, who can’t speak good Italian, a shortcoming for a man who would be the Bishop of Rome.

A cardinal from the Philippines could be a choice. The country has a Catholic majority and a strong candidate, Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle, 55, who is also an appreciated theologian, a necessary virtue for a pope. He is very young, as a pope, even "young" Wojtyla was elected when he was 58, and he is still untested, he was ordained cardinal only three months ago. Moreover, is the church willing to bet on a man who could rule for 30 years, a time when the world is changing at an extremely fast pace? In 15, 20 years he might be too jaded to face the new challenges ahead of him and yet still in good health - and thus in power.

A pope could come from Europe and be a man who symbolizes the church's achievements, such as Cardinal Marx, head of the European bishops, from Trier, Karl Marx's home town. The church would choose with him symbolically "a Jew and a communist" as its leader, thus perhaps also indicate a return to its ancient origins.

Pros and cons will be carefully weighed in the next weeks in the Congregazioni, the traditional meetings preparing for the conclave. There, a profile of the papal candidate will be sketched. But it will be only the beginning, because as has happened many times in the past, two blocks may fight each other and a surprise third candidate may emerge to reconcile the church and get all the necessary 77 votes to be elected.

Francesco Sisci is a columnist for the Italian daily Il Sole 24 Ore and can be reached at fsisci@gmail.com  

Posted with Francesco Sisci's permission.


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